In a letter to the British press, an American Federalist was sure of victory over Madison’s “Democrats.”
“De Witt Clinton will be president; Mr Monroe will go out; his successor is not named.”
He continued that “our secretary of treasury is going down as fast as possible. His budget will, no doubt, be the laughing stock of all foreign nations, as well as this.”
This was written in February 3 of 1812, and printed in the Hull Packet (and advertiser etc, some of these newspapers have long names) in March 10.
They say seven months is eternity in politics, but did that New York voter change his mind that “There is a contemplated change, when Madison’s time is out, for it is very certain that he will not be re-elected.
This writer was not alone. The British press continued to predict Victory for Clinton as late as October of 1812.
De Witt Clinton, according to the paper, would win New Hampshire (8) Massachusetts (22) Rhode Island (4) Connecticut (9) Vermont (8) New York (29) New Jersey (8) Delaware (4) Marlyland (3) North Carolina (15) in other words taking the Northern States for a total of 110 electoral votes.
Madison was expected to take the Southern States and Pennsylvania (25) and some of Maryland (8) as well as New Orleans (perhaps a misprint of the new state of Louisiana) and Ohio for a total of 103.
Although some votes were unaccounted for, it still shows a clear Clinton victory.
The Calendonian Mercury conceded, however, that other sources predicted a victory for Madison, the President who had recently declared war on Britain, with a “considerable majority.” The Scottish paper didn’t trust all of the USA’s journalists, and for good reason.
So, in the old days, they predicted election results to. Imagine how different the world would have been if American had elected a President Clinton in 1812. (shudder.)